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The number of pupils in special schools has been spiralling, along with a capacity crisis and looming local authority bankruptcies.

And a big part of the solution, according to education secretary Bridget Phillipson, is a bright, more inclusive future for mainstream schools.

Some supporters of this policy point to the rising number of students in specialist settings taking GCSEs as evidence that many could, with the right support, attend a mainstream school.

Does this hold up? Tes has analysed attainment data and spoken to experts to find out.

Between 2016 and 2024, the number of pupils with an education, health and care plan has increased by 83.4 per cent to 434,000.

And, while the proportion of pupils educated in special schools remains low, it has risen by a third since 2016, from 1.45 per cent to 1.95 per cent last academic year, an almost 55 per cent increase in raw terms, to 188,426 pupils.

The overall rise in the pupil population during this time has been 6.2 per cent.

To relieve some of the pressures on the sector, the education secretary has thrown £740 million into providing 10,000 extra places for pupils with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) in adapted mainstream settings and, to a far lesser extent, new places in special schools.

One of the factors driving this policy shift is a view that there are pupils in special schools who could . Some proponents of this view point to the rising number who are accessing GCSEs.

Some 6,059 students at special schools entered one GCSE or equivalent in 2023-24, up by 30.6 per cent since 2019.

Meanwhile, 3,410 entered both GCSE maths and English last academic year, a 33.2 per cent rise from 2019.

For Jarlath O’Brien, director of school improvement at Solent Academies Trust, these statistics “suggest that there are students in special schools who are attaining in line with their peers in mainstream schools”; the corollary to which being that more, therefore, could be in mainstream.

“No doubt there are some children who require specialist support to thrive, and a special school is entirely appropriate in those cases. But I am also in no doubt that there are children in special schools who should not be there,” he said.

What is driving these students into special schools? With “a little understanding and flexibility” - for example, on behaviour and uniform policy - some could have stayed in the mainstream system, Mr O’Brien said.

“In addition, I have lost count of the number of parents who have felt heavily dissuaded by headteachers from seeking a place at their mainstream secondary,” he added.

Mainstream ‘lacks resource despite best intentions’

Others point to insufficient resourcing in mainstream schools that want to be more inclusive to students with SEND.

Margaret Mulholland, SEND and inclusion specialist at the Association of School and College Leaders, said: “More is being expected of mainstream schools, but actually what they can offer is often quite limited by lack of resource despite best intentions.”

She added that to achieve the government’s desired goals, “we must see an increase in resourcing”.

Additional resource for a speech and language therapist, a support assistant or a mentor, alongside inclusive teaching, can enable better mainstream accessibility, she said.

But supporting students to access the curriculum “is much harder to achieve” without the “additional environmental and pedagogical support” found in special schools, she warns.

What, then, does the data show?

Although the numbers are relatively small, a significant minority of students at special schools are taking GCSEs, and a noticeably larger number of those entrants are performing relatively well.

Between 2018-19 and 2023-24, special school entrants to one GCSE or equivalent rose by 30.6 per cent to 6,059. And entrants to both GCSE maths and English increased by 33.2 per cent to 3,410.

It is important to place this growth in the context of the even larger increase in the headline number of students in special schools at the end of key stage 4 over that period, which grew by 37.4 per cent to 18,191.

This means that, even though the raw number of special school students entering GCSEs has increased significantly, they comprise a smaller proportion of the KS4 cohort at these schools.

However, they are getting increasingly strong results.

The proportion achieving grade four or above in maths and English grew by 57.1 per cent over five years to 2023-24, albeit comprising only 506 students in total.

More broadly, 5,787 achieved a pass at GCSE or equivalent, 31.7 per cent more than in 2018-19.

Does this suggest that there are students in special schools who could be in mainstream - or does it simply show how successful their specialist setting has been?

One secondary teacher in London, who wished to remain anonymous, suggested it was the latter.

“Because somebody achieves a GCSE in a special school, does it mean that they’d achieve it in mainstream,” they asked. “I’d think no, they probably achieved it because they got much more support, more one-to-one time and had smaller classes.”

Ms Mulholland also cautions that improved attainment by students at special schools does not necessarily discredit their need for that placement.

“I think we’re too quick to equate learning difficulties with low attainment,” she said.

“A young person might have strong skills in certain areas, but [if] their memory is poor or their processing speed is poor, they [may] have quite significant barriers to learning…[But] they can still attain with the right opportunities,” she added.

Special school students accessing GCSEs

While the statistics show a material improvement in outcomes, a feeling shared by Ms Mulholland, Mr O’Brien and Rob Gasson, CEO of the Wave Trust, a MAT focused on alternative provision, is that even more children in special schools could be accessing GCSEs and achieving good results if the assessment system were reformed.

All three agree that, for some students, the demands of two-hour exams focused on “remembering and regurgitating” are too exacting. Ms Mulholland added that the “level of curriculum content at GCSE is disabling, not for all, but for some”.

One distinction to consider is between state-funded special schools and their private counterparts.

There were around 75 per cent more Year 11 students in state-funded special schools than in independent special schools last year, but those in the private sector were significantly more likely to take GCSEs.

Some 35 per cent (1,202 students) at special independent schools were entered last year, compared with just 14.8 per cent in the state sector (2,119 students).

Grades, too, were higher in the independent sector, with 20.5 per cent of entrants to maths and English achieving grades four or above, compared with just 11.3 per cent in state specials.

It is not easy to interpret from the available data to what extent this reflects differences in cohorts across both sectors, but the anonymous secondary teacher in London raised concerns that it could be due to private schools’ access to international GCSEs (iGCSEs).

These have been all but phased out of the state sector since 2018, after funding for them was halted in 2019.

In some subjects, iGCSEs “can be much better for children with special needs”, the teacher said. “In particular, some would argue that the English iGCSE is more accessible, and it has coursework, so the school has more control.”

Questions raised

What conclusion to draw, then? Does the data show that, yes, more of these students accessing and attaining well at GCSE could be in mainstream schools, supporting the government’s push? Or are these students only able to attain because of the additional support they receive in special school?

Inevitably, the answer remains disputed.

Mr O’Brien said that the data “raises questions as to why those students were unable to complete their studies in mainstream secondary schools” and expressed concern that “what it means to be a mainstream school has become narrower over time”.

But Mr Gasson said that being in a special school does not mean a student should lack the ambition to have good quality GCSEs.

“The belief that special schools are full of children who could be in mainstream school…I just don’t believe that,” he said.

He added that, although he understands the impetus for change given the growing cost of SEND provision, he worries government reform toward a more inclusive mainstream will see decisions “made about finances…to the detriment of children”.

A Department for Education spokesperson said: “The evidence is clear that this government inherited a SEND system left on its knees - with too many children not having their needs met and parents forced to fight for support.

“It will take time, but as part of our Plan for Change, we are thinking differently about what the SEND system should look like, to restore the confidence of families up and down the country and deliver the improvement they are crying out for so every child can achieve and thrive.

“We are already making progress by investing £1 billion into SEND and £740 million to encourage councils to create more specialist places in mainstream schools, paving the way for significant, long-term reform.”

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