Since the Labour government announced its intention to introduce VAT on independent school fees there have been warnings the policy would place - as the Scottish Council of Independent Schools (SCIS) put it - “an even greater strain on the state system”.
VAT on fees, it was argued, would increase the cost of private education and push families out of the sector and into state schools, wiping out any money raised through the policy, which was introduced this month and is expected to raise £1.725 billion a year, according to the Treasury.
In Scotland, it was predicted that the impact of the policy would be most acute in Edinburgh, where the council estimates 15 per cent of pupils attend private school, although the reported figure is often higher.
‘Trickle’ of pupils arriving in state schools
However, the president of secondary headteachers’ body School Leaders Scotland, Pauline Walker, who is head of The Royal High School in Edinburgh, today described the flow of pupils into state schools to date as ”more of a trickle than a flood”.
Today, Tes Scotland can reveal that a total of 51 independent school pupils moved to Edinburgh state schools between 1 June and Monday of this week (18 pupils to primary schools and 33 to secondaries).
Ms Walker acknowledged that there had been “some additional movement of pupils from the independent sector”, but all pupils had been accommodated.
She added that mid-session enrolment could throw up challenges, including the matching of curriculum choices from S3 upwards, but that schools “do all they can to make suitable arrangements”.
Responding to the figures, SCIS chief executive Lorraine Davidson said: “Families and schools do everything possible to avoid a pupil being forced to move during the course of an academic year. Children forced to move mid-way through an academic year suffer disruption to their learning and it could also impact their wellbeing.
“SCIS warned the UK government this would be the consequence of imposing the harmful education tax in the middle of a school year but they failed to listen to our concerns and, sadly, children’s education is the casualty of poor policymaking.”
Joan Griffiths, the City of Edinburgh Council education, children and families convener, said the authority was focused on children and young people living in Edinburgh getting “the very best start in life, regardless of where a child’s school journey may have started”.
She added: “We have capacity in our primary and secondary schools to accommodate additional pupils that may come into our schools from different routes, including from the independent school sector.”
VAT on school fees reinvested in state schools
Ms Griffiths said the council would continue to track enquiries and applications for school places and review capacity in its schools.
Requests for places, she said, would be handled by “applying existing admissions and school placements policy”.
The UK government has said that VAT on school fees will be reinvested in state schools.
Westminster education secretary Bridget Phillipson said in a speech at the Labour Party Conference in September 2024: “We will end private schools’ tax breaks to drive high and rising standards for the nine in 10 children who go to state schools.”
However, it has been pointed out by organisations such as SCIS that there is no guarantee this will happen in Scotland, where it will be up to the Scottish government how any extra funds are spent.
As to how big that pot of cash will be, definitive figures are hard to come by.
A and published in February 2024 estimated that £51 million would be raised through the move in Scotland.
However, Scottish Labour’s education spokesperson Pam Duncan-Glancy has claimed in the past that £100 million to £120 million would be raised, or enough to employ 1,800 teachers in state schools.
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