Ucas has announced a pilot scheme using personalised reports to help schools improve the accuracy of predicted grades amid what the organisation described as a “growing difference” between predicted and actual results.
More than 1,000 schools and colleges will be provided with the personalised reports, which will show “how their Ucas predicted grades compare to achieved results” under the .
Ucas chief executive Dr Jo Saxton said the aim of the reports is to support teachers and advisers “in guiding students toward courses and universities that best suit their needs, while also providing efficiencies for staff already managing high workloads”.
According to the university admissions organisation, which manages around 3 million applications each year, its that the gulf between predicted grades and final awarded grades has been growing over time.
The gap between predicted and actual grades
In 2014 a little over 40 per cent of 18-year-old applicants in England with at least three Ucas predicted A levels achieved within one grade of their predicted grades.
Excluding the outlier years of the Covid-19 pandemic, when this figure reached as high as 60 per cent, this proportion has been in decline since 2014, falling as low as around 30 per cent in 2024.
The gap between predicted and actual grades has been most noticeable at the top end of the scale.
In 2024 just shy of 50 per cent of 18-year-old applicants in the UK were predicted to receive AAA and above. In reality, just 26 per cent of those accepted on to university and college courses last summer secured AAA and above.
The further an applicant falls below their Ucas predicted grades, the less likely they are to be accepted on to their chosen course.
The Ucas analysis also shows that disadvantaged applicants to universities and colleges (defined using the Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index score) got grades further below their Ucas predicted grades than more advantaged applicants.
Ucas said that the pilot forms part of “continued efforts to increase transparency around university and college admissions” and will help to “further unlock opportunity for students”.
Dr Saxton, a former chief regulator of Ofqual, said that predicted grades “are one of the most important services that schools provide” but acknowledged that the actual prediction “can sometimes be challenging”.
She added that Ucas is “committed to supporting [schools] further, giving access to their own individual Ucas Predicted Grades Report to help inform 2026 admissions predictions”.
The reports will include 2024 data on 18-year-olds in the UK (excluding Scotland) with at least three A levels and have been developed in consultation with groups across the education sector, including schools, universities and colleges.
Plans are said to be underway to expand the range of qualifications that the reports include.
For the latest education news and analysis delivered every weekday morning, sign up for the Tes Daily newsletter
