The rate of suspensions and exclusions may be reaching its peak after rising year on year since the pandemic, a new analysis suggests.
While the number of suspensions and permanent exclusions rose by a third in autumn term 2023-24, today has found that this number may be beginning to slow.
FFT Education Datalab uses data from 9,000 schools using its attendance tracker to produce analysis well ahead of official statistics being published by the Department for Education.
In November, it looked at . Official statistics will only be published in the summer.
10 per cent of disadvantaged Year 9 pupils suspended
Now it has produced analysis for the 2024-25 autumn term which shows broadly similar numbers to last year.
The combined suspension and exclusion rate for Year 10 and Year 11 has decreased by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points respectively, with no change for Year 9.
Primary year groups saw a minor increase of 0.1 percentage points, and the rate also went up slightly for Year 7 and Year 8 (0.2 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points, respectively).
The percentage of pupils who are suspended or excluded at least once is also very similar to last year, FFT found, with Year 10 and Year 11 again improving on the previous term.
However, the disparity between disadvantaged pupils and their non-disadvantaged peers remains.
One in ten (10 per cent) of disadvantaged pupils in Year 9 and 10 were suspended or excluded at least once in the autumn term.
Has a peak been reached?
“Early data for the most recent academic year suggests that the rate of increase is at least beginning to slow,” said Dave Thomson, chief statistician at FFT.
“A peak may have been reached, or is close to being reached,” he concluded.
The Department for Education will publish official data for suspensions and permanent exclusions in autumn term 2024-25 in November.
The data comes after the Conservatives tabled an amendment to the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill to ensure that all acts and threats of violence against teachers are reported to the police.
The suggestion that suspensions and exclusions might have peaked in the autumn term follows attendance data for the term showing that persistent absence is improving.
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