More than nine in 10 secondary schools and three-quarters of primaries will not be able to afford their costs next year, unions have said.
The School Cuts coalition said that 76 per cent of primaries and 94 per cent of secondaries are unlikely to be able to afford the expected increase in school costs, which outstrip the rise in school funding.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT school leaders’ union, said: “School leaders simply can’t make any more cuts without directly harming pupils’ education.
“While we recognise the incredibly difficult financial inheritance this government is dealing with, children and young people’s education should not suffer as a result.”
IFS highlights budget gaps
The Institute for Fiscal Studies previously said school costs are expected to grow by 3.6 per cent next year, while mainstream school funding rises by 2.8 per cent.
The Department for Education has recommended a 2.8 per cent teacher pay rise for next year to the School Teachers’ Review Body (STRB). School Cuts’ analysis assumes this will be the final pay rise and there will be no funding to cover it.
The DfE submission said many schools would need to supplement their funding for 2025-26 “with efficiencies” to cover a 2.8 per cent award.
Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said it is “difficult to see” how the government can improve opportunities for young people if schools cannot afford the cost of pay awards without having to make cuts.
The coalition said the gap between cost rises and funding will leave every local authority in the country seeing a reduction in real-terms, per-pupil funding.
The NEU teaching union will start an indicative ballot on 1 March over the DfE’s 2.8 per cent pay recommendation.
The union said the ballot would gauge feelings about a rise of 2.8 per cent, and may lead to a formal ballot if members show a willingness to take industrial action.
NEU general secretary Daniel Kebede said that schools and colleges “simply do not have the capacity to fund pay increases”. He called for urgent investment into the sector.
The latest DfE data showed one in seven maintained schools was in deficit as of 2023-24.
The next step of the pay process is for the STRB to make a recommendation on the pay rise.
Final pay rise announcement later this year
The DfE has said previously that it is hoping to announce the final pay rise “as soon as possible after April 2025”.
The School Cuts coalition based its data on 19,725 schools, of which 15,562 are estimated to have to make cuts next year.
The School Cuts website is run by the NEU, ASCL, NAHT and supported by Parentkind and the National Governance Association.
The coalition calculates teaching staff costs by factoring in: the rest of the 5.5 per cent pay increase; pay drift; and the 2.8 per cent pay recommendation. This leads to an average rise of 4 per cent for the 2025-26 financial year.
It assumes a 2.8 per cent rise for non-teaching staff, as the government has recommended this for all public sector workers. Non-staff costs are assumed to rise in line with inflation.
The DfE has been contacted for comment.
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