The official target for recruiting postgraduates into initial teacher training for next year has been reduced as teacher retention is forecast to improve.
The Department for Education has set a target of recruiting 26,920 trainees in 2025-26 - a number that is 19.3 per cent lower than this year.
The primary trainee target is 7,650 for next year, an 18.6 per cent year-on-year decrease, while the secondary target is 19,270, a 19.6 per cent fall.
The DfE said the reduction in the primary target is “principally a result of more rapidly falling pupil numbers”.
However, it is also down to better forecasts for teacher retention and the recruitment of newly qualified teachers who have deferred their entry to the profession.
Jack Worth, school workforce lead at the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER), said the recruitment statistics have shown an improvement and NFER’s initial teacher training (ITT) forecasts are now “looking much more positive”, with primary and secondary maths, science and English all predicted to be on or above target this year.
Posting on Bluesky, he said improvements in ITT recruitment could potentially be down to last year’s 5.5 per cent teacher pay rise, retention payments and a cooling labour market.
Teacher training recruitment targets reduced
Recruitment targets have increased by 980 across six subjects at secondary, but decreased by 5,665 across 12 subjects.
The DfE said forecasts of teacher supply at secondary are more favourable this year, particularly because of an increase of 2,000 trainees entering secondary ITT between 2023-24 and 2024-25.
It also said that the most recent pay increase of 5.5 per cent for teachers is expected to improve retention.
The pay award for 2025-26 has not been published yet, but it has been reported that the teacher pay review body recommended it should be near to 4 per cent, despite the DfE recommending a lower rise of 2.8 per cent.
The slower growth in secondary student numbers also means that the workforce does not need to grow as quickly, the DfE said.
The government is currently “finalising” how it will deliver its promise of 6,500 new teachers as part of the multi-year spending review process, the DfE said.
“This year’s lower targets do not reflect a less ambitious recruitment aim and we remain committed to this key pledge,” it said.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT school leaders’ union, said the sector needs to understand more about how targets have been calculated and why they have been cut, given they were missed for both secondary and primary last year.
One of the secondary subjects that has had its recruitment target increased is history: this target is up by 9 per cent due to worse retention forecasts for history teachers.
The drama target has also been increased by 38 per cent because of forecasts for newly qualified entrant recruitment looking worse for this year.
The target has increased for classics by 200 per cent, but from a small baseline of 20 trainees to 60 trainees, along with PE (up by 16 per cent) and religious education (up by 34 per cent).
However, chemistry has seen a 40 per cent reduction in its target due to improved teacher retention and returner forecasts.
Modern languages have seen the largest percentage decrease at 43 per cent. Again, this is because of better forecasts of teacher retention, recruitment of returning teachers and entrants.
The other subjects that have seen reductions in targets are maths (down by 25 per cent), biology (down 12 per cent), physics (down 37 per cent), computing (down 33 per cent), English (down 15 per cent), geography (down 1 per cent), art and design (down 38 per cent), business studies (down 25 per cent), design and technology (down 38 per cent) and music (down 31 per cent).
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