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For many years, there have been concerns about decreasing pupil numbers. This is a consequence of the birth rate, which has been in decline since 2010, and is leading to financial problems for schools - and, in some cases, even closures.

But on local authority forecasts of pupil numbers shows that not every region will be affected equally - and the story is different for primary and secondary.

In fact, some buck the trend altogether and may pose questions not around closures but classroom capacity.

Overall, the new data says that in the 2023-24 academic year, there were 7,991,986 pupils in primary and secondary schools across England. This is expected to increase in 2025-26 to 8,042,925, before falling to 7,949,640 in 2028-29 - a decrease of 0.5 per cent on 2023-24 figures.

Regional differences

Yet, as you can see in the graph below, showing the overall pupil population broken down by the nine regions, not all follow the national pattern.

As per the data, the North East won’t see a rise in the next couple of years at all, but will simply decline steadily, falling to 348,023 in 2028-29 - 3.7 per cent down on today’s 360,801, a far more pronounced dip than the national average.

That decline will be even more pronounced in London, which is due to experience a 4.8 per cent decrease in pupil numbers, from 1,216,006 in 2023-24 to 1,157,181 in 2028-29.

But head to the East Midlands, and total pupil numbers are expected to grow from 697,805 to 724,786 by 2028-29 - a 3.9 per cent increase.

Meanwhile, the West Midlands (2.6 per cent), the East of England (2 per cent) and the South East (0.6 per cent) are also all due to experience an increase in pupil figures - against the national grain.

Primary increase in the East Midlands

But the differences become more pronounced when we look at different phases - starting with primary schools.

Here, only one region shows an expected increase in the number of primary-age pupils: the East Midlands.

The region counted 385,430 primary pupils in 2023-24, a number that will grow by 1.1 per cent to 389,592 in 2028-29.

Stuart Burns, CEO of the 36-academy David Ross Education Trust, based in the region, notes there are “numerous housing developments around Kettering, Wellingborough and Loughborough” that show the region is growing in population.

However, while at regional level there is growth, Burns says the trust expects it to vary by local authority and so there is “unlikely to be even growth” - especially as there are “many rural catchment areas” where growth is likely to be lower.

As such, he says any school or trust in the region should “engage with local authorities very early, to make sure there are enough places at both primary and secondary entry”.

Steep primary decrease in the North East

All other regions show a decrease at primary, with some more concerning than others.

The North East is projected to have the largest decline, from 202,274 primary pupils in 2023-24 to 185,983 in 2028-29, or a drop of 8.1 per cent.

This projection is just a continuation of what schools in the region have had to get used to in recent years, says Peter King, headteacher of Mowden Infant and Junior Schools in Darlington.

He explains that when the school’s current Year 6 cohort began Reception in 2018 with just 72 children, “we took this as our cue to formally reduce the roll from 90 to 60”.

King speculates that the population decrease in the region is down to “the continued decline of former industrial areas, which disproportionately affects the North East”.

He fears the worst may still be yet to come: “We know we still have to be careful. Our latest projected Reception figures are in the low fifties, so we still may not have reached the bottom.”

Primary numbers in decline in London

It’s a similarly worrying story in the capital. London’s decrease is also expected to be significant at 8 per cent, from 659,953 in 2023-24 to 607,326 in 2028-29. But the problem is not equal across the Inner and Outer boroughs, as you can see from the graph below.

Between 2023-24 and 2028-29, the primary population in Inner London is expected to drop by a huge 12.2 per cent, from 212,197 to 186,361.

In Outer London, the projection is for a 6 per cent decrease, from 447,756 to 420,965.

These decreases are problematic for schools because “funding is largely determined by the number of pupils they have on roll”, says Michael Scott, senior economist at the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER).

“Primary schools facing falls of 10 per cent in pupil rolls will face huge financial challenges and risks. Without support from the government, cuts will be unavoidable and painful,” he adds.

This is an issue with which Dan Moynihan, CEO of the 55-school Harris Federation, is all too familiar.

“The number of children in our Inner London primary schools has been falling for a couple of years,” he says. “Two years ago, we merged two primary schools, effectively closing one in Peckham.”

He suggests the cost of living in the capital, the two-child benefit cap and the housing benefit cap are “effectively pricing many families out of central London”.

In turn, the cost of living also means “it’s really difficult to get teachers in London”, Moynihan adds, because “the cost of housing” is prohibitive for them, too.

He says the question for the government needs to be: “Is London becoming the preserve of the wealthy?”

Secondary figures to climb nationally

But this trend of decline is not the whole picture. Confusingly for long-term planning, the secondary data tells a very different story.

Here the DfE data provides a slightly longer-term forecast, with projections to 2030-31.

These figures show that the total secondary population is projected to grow from 3,565,935 in 2023-24 to a height of 3,710,136 in 2027-28, before falling slightly to 3,672,669 in 2030-31, as primary pupils move up the school years.

The forecast still shows an increase, though, with 3 per cent more secondary students.

But each region will be affected differently, as shown below.

London is the outlier here, with forecasts projecting that by 2030-31, the capital will see a 3.4 per cent decrease on 2023-24 pupil figures, the only region to decrease over this period.

Again, this will more significantly impact schools in Inner London, as you can see in the graph below.

Inner London secondaries are due to experience an 8.8 per cent decrease in numbers, from 179,645 in 2023-24 to 163,889 in 2030-31.

This drop is far less significant in Outer London, where numbers are projected to see a 0.8 decrease from 376,408 to 373,474.

Moynihan says he is already experiencing this issue, as falling rolls at Harris are “now starting to transfer across into secondary”.

“In Inner London boroughs, it’s going to have a big impact on budgets,” he says. “There’s no way around that, but it’s very unfortunate at a time when we’ve got national insurance not being fully funded, along with shortages in the funding for the teacher pay rise. It’s going to be very, very difficult.”

Outside London, the news is very different. For example, the North East, which had a 2023-24 secondary population of 158,527, will rise to 162,849 in 2026-27 before decreasing to 159,270 by 2030-31. That’s still a 0.5 per cent increase on 2023-24.

Yorkshire and the Humber is also projected to see an increase, rising 0.9 per cent from 348,590 in 2023-24 to 351,570 in 2030-31.

Projected increases in the West Midlands

The projections are more extreme in the West Midlands, which is almost set to see something of a population boom of 6.6 per cent growth, from 401,017 secondary students in 2023-41 to 427,554 in 2030-31.

This increase is something that Vince Green, CEO of the nine-school Summit Learning Trust, says his trust is already preparing for.

“All of our secondary schools have been full in Year 7 in the past three years,” he says, adding that “two of our secondaries have taken additional learners in recent years” and the trust has been supported by the DfE to build additional learning areas at Solihull Sixth Form College.

Steve Bell, director of education at the Birmingham Diocesan Education Service, also says that while some regions are facing decline, the growth in the area “presents challenges”.

“Teacher recruitment and retention are key considerations, particularly in high-demand subjects,” he says, noting too that “physical space” capacity will also be a priority.

These are also challenges that may be seen in the East Midlands and the East of England, which are expected to see a 6.4 per cent increase in secondary population - from 312,375 to 332,245 and from 413,873 to 440,188, respectively.

Nuanced place planning is vital

All this means that “nuanced place planning between schools and local authorities” is vital, says Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders.

“This will either ensure that new places and schools are commissioned in time to meet demand, or that steps can be taken to mitigate the impact of any decline in pupil numbers,” he adds.

As well as the looming decisions to close unviable schools, Di’Iasio says that others that are under capacity might look to solutions, including “introducing mixed age classes in primary schools and looking at ways to utilise space in school buildings”.

However, even with these measures, regions facing a decline may well face tough decisions in the years ahead, says Scott at the NFER.

He adds: “Schools as pupil numbers have fallen. But if they continue to fall much further, it seems inevitable that many more will need to take drastic measures such as this.”

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