Prime minister Boris Johnson is expected to unveil a plan onMonday for reopening schools from 8March based largely on the extent to whichinfection rates have fallen.
But what is a low enough infection rate for schools to reopen? In an accompanying article, we look at where England’s Covid rates are likely to be by 8 March and whether that is deemed safe.
Here we analyse how a range of other countries have approached this tricky balancing act. Thedata reveals that differentgovernments have tackled this question very differently.
Analysis: Will England’s Covid rates be safe for 8 March school opening?
Related:Education and Covid-19: how other nations have fared
Revealed: When scientists think it will be safe to reopen schools
Lockdown:Ministers ‘told to ramp up’ school opening plans
Boris Johnson:We hope to reopen schools from 8 March
Wales andScotland
Both Wales and Scotlandare reopening schools to the youngest pupils on Monday.
Andin those countries at the time of writingare 89.9 per 100,000 and 104.2 per 100,000 respectively, based on the total number of casesfor the most recent seven-day periodprovided by theOffice for National Statistics.
This, of course, is close to the 100 per 100,000 threshold at which scientists have said it is safe toreopen schools.
The rate in England for the most recent seven-day periodis 142.8per 100,000 and therefore may still be considered too high at present.
But experts have told Tes that rates are likely to fall to under 50 per 100,000 by 8 March,when the government hopes the wider return of pupils can begin.
But how does this compare across the world?Whilethere are differences inthe way some countriesreport onand test for new infections, it is evident that awide variety of approaches have been taken.
Canada
Just under half of schools in Ontario, Canada, have returned to “in-person learning” this week (following the other half that opened earlier this month) -andthe rate of infections over the past week is less than a third of England’s rate,at 48 per 100,000,
Education minister Stephen Lecce “Ontario is ready to reopen our schools because it’s safe” and that the decision was based on advice from local medical officers and Ontario’s top doctor, following “a consistent decline in key transmission rates”.
USA
In the United States, president Joe Biden has set a goal of having more than 50 per cent of the nation’s schools reopened by the 100th day of his presidency on 30 April.
Theduring the pandemic, including the use of masks, hand washing and “respiratory etiquette”.
But because each state hasbeen able to set its own rules for schools reopening, it is hard to say whether the school system was ever “closed”.
In the state of North Dakota, for example,which has the highest number ofCovid cases in the USsince the pandemic began, the decision as to whether to reopen schools has been left to districts, individual schools or local authorities ().
The rate of active casesin the state on 17 February, using figures fromthe website (which is the source of allinfection rates* in the rest of this article, unless stated).
Japan
In Japan, when schools reopened on 18 Maylast year -with social distancing and reduced hours - per day.
Tes has calculated thisto be an infection rate ofjust under 0.37 peopleper 100,000.
Uruguay
In Uruguay, when schools in thecapital, Montevideo, reopened on 28 Junelast year (following the reopening of rural schools the previous month),per day, which is 1.6 cases per 100,000.
New Zealand
In New Zealand, whenschools reopened fully on 8 June,amonga population of 5,002,100, which is a rate of 0.14 per 100,000.
France
And in France, schools fully reopened again on 22 June,when which works out at a rate of 5.17 infected people per 100,000.
Andin the UK, on 1 June,when primary schools in Englandreopened to certain year groups, ,which is a rate of 14.6 per 100,000.
And on 2 Septemberlast year, when schools fully reopened in England,estimatesshowthe infection rate could have been71 per 100,000.
A glimmer of hope for schools reopening on 8 Marchperhapscould be that the ONS statistics show the rate of infection in England is now less than a quarter,when primary schools reopened for one day after Christmas(when it was 642.1 per 100,000, according to the ONS).
*Infection rates calculated using statisticsfrom Worldometers.info are based on the seven-day moving average of dailynew cases at the time of writingmultiplied by seven (thendivided by population and multiplied by 100,000). This is slightly different to the ONS rate per 100,000, which is based on the total number of cases over seven days.
