It is difficult to imagine many suggestions as incendiary as scrapping or scaling back education, health and care plans (EHCPs) - and yet this is where we apparently find ourselves.
The refusal of ministers this week to be drawn on whether EHCPs will be retained has added to fears that this is what will be proposed in a White Paper to be published in the autumn.
Campaigners are lining up to oppose any move in that direction, and there is the possibility that we’ll see backbenchers rebelling as they did recently over welfare reforms.
In short, the government is lurching towards a fresh crisis, and many families are scared to death about what this could mean for their children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND).
However, a political disaster is not inevitable, and I believe there is a route out of this mess.
Give an assurance on EHCPs
First, it is imperative that the government confirms that it has no intention of withdrawing existing EHCPs.
Removing legal protections from children for provision specified following an assessment of their needs is unthinkable. It is not morally defensible and would almost certainly result in a legal challenge.
Ministers do not need to wait for the publication of the White Paper. They should make a clear statement now that existing EHCPs will not be affected. This would reassure worried parents and immediately take much of the heat out of the debate.
Politically, it would put the government in control of the agenda and prevent months of damaging speculation.
Build capacity in mainstream schools
Secondly, ministers need to ensure that their planned SEND reforms are logical and will command the confidence and support of parents, schools and colleges.
The key to this is not to put the cart before the horse. The end result may be to reduce reliance on EHCPs. However, the first step is to build capacity in mainstream schools to identify needs at an early stage and support more children without reaching the point where an EHCP is required.
After all, if the support that the child is receiving is working well, and the parents are happy with that provision, then there is no real reason to seek an EHCP.
However, the point is that any reduction in EHCPs must be achieved as a natural result of an improved system and not by diktat.
Set out a plan for provision
Thirdly, the government must spell out how it is going to build capacity for SEND support in mainstream schools.
This means a clear set of expectations, a funding model that ensures schools can afford the required provision, support for staff training and access to specialist interventions such as speech and language therapists and educational psychologists.
It will be particularly important that Reception and key stage 1 staff are well supported and able to draw on specialist help to identify needs and put in place appropriate provision.
This is not achievable by simply setting out a whole new set of expectations in accountability measures. The government will have to accept that this is a huge project that will require substantial investment to achieve a system that is more sustainable in the long run.
Fourthly, ministers must be clear that the demand for special-school places will continue to be high and they will need to plan for sufficient provision. A large number of children will continue to have needs that are simply too profound to be addressed in mainstream education.
An unsustainable system
Fifthly, the government must be clear about what it is trying to achieve. The SEND system is financially unsustainable in its current form. The only reason why a number of local authorities have not already gone bankrupt is an accounting mechanism called the “statutory override”, which is basically an agreement to just ignore the deficits.
It is not even as if the eye-watering sums of money involved are delivering great outcomes. The system is so overwhelmed that less than half of new EHCPs were issued within the 20-week statutory time frame last year - meaning lengthy delays in provision.
Meanwhile, mainstream schools are left struggling with inadequate resources and a lack of sufficient specialist support, which inevitably results in conflicts with parents.
It’s not about the money
But - and this is the most important point - this is not really about money at all, it is about delivering a system that actually works well for children who need and deserve high-quality and timely support.
Everything in the new strategy must be informed by that priority.
I know there are many people working in and with the government right now who share that view and who believe passionately in the urgent need to improve the system.
It is so important that the changes that are being planned have the confidence of parents, schools and colleges. That confidence will have been dented this week by the uncertainty over the future of EHCPs, but ministers can address this, as I have set out in this article.
Then we can work together on developing a brilliant system of which we can all be proud - one which protects and nurtures all children identified with SEND, allowing them to thrive and enjoy rich and rewarding lives.
That is a prize worth more than any amount of money.
Pepe Di’Iasio is general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders
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