Here’s a fact for you: Ofsted’s proposed school inspection system of eight categories with five possible judgements means there are 390,625 possible inspection outcomes. The old system had a maximum of 256.
Meanwhile, if the inspection is of a school with an early years or sixth-form provision and so is judged against nine categories, the number of possible outcomes rises to 1,953,125. If they have both and are judged against all ten categories, it means there are 9,765,625 possible outcomes.
Finally, because schools also face a binary “met” or “not met” 51 judgement, the number of potential outcomes doubles in each case to as high as 19,531,250.
Given this, it’s perhaps not surprising that school union leaders, such as general secretary Pepe Di’Iasio of the Association of School and College Leaders, have questioned whether it will be possible to reach conclusions that are consistent “with any degree of validity”, adding “it is certainly a recipe for systemic inconsistency”.
Consistency concerns
Mark Enser, former His Majesty’s Inspector (HMI) and Ofsted geography subject lead, agrees, saying he is “very worried” about the number of possible outcomes inspectors will now have to report on.
“Time has always been the biggest barrier to fair and reliable inspections and these proposals only seem to make matters worse,” he says.
He says that, based on his experience, if inspectors are expected to make so many more judgements against what he says are “vague and subjective” grading criteria then the nature of inspection teams will have to change.
“Gathering enough evidence to be sure of any judgement will be impossible unless inspection teams become much larger.”
One serving inspector, speaking to Tes anonymously, says they also think more categories that require more training to understand will add “more pressure on inspectors, leading to greater inconsistencies”.
Another serving inspector shares this concern: “There is an awful lot of space for subjective judgements to creep in”, they tell Tes, adding: “Interpretation of the value words will differ.”
Too much to manage
In addition to this, these inspectors worry the scale of the new reports will make it hard for inspectors to truly have the time or capacity to accurately report on what they find. “Actually capturing all of that evidence will be difficult and corners are likely to be cut,” they say.
They say one reason for this is the planning and preparation required will now be so large as to make it very unwieldy for inspectors to fit all this in alongside their day jobs.
“You don’t know what you need to look at until the night before [an inspection], often after a full day at work. You then need to set up and plan,” they say.
Another inspector shares this concern: “With additional categories, the volume of pre-inspection preparation will likely increase, leading to more late-night reviews of documents, deep dives and evaluation forms.”
“Without structural adjustments, the workload impact on inspectors will be unsustainable, particularly for serving practitioners who already have demanding day jobs.
New model ‘must be practically workable’
Given this, both inspectors say they fear more inspectors will walk away from the role - a concern echoed by Di’Iasio at ASCL.
“It seems a very difficult task to reach so many definitive judgements within a short space of time, and although many inspectors are highly competent with a great deal of experience, there is a limit to what can reasonably be expected of them,” he tells Tes.
“If inspectors feel they can’t reach a fair judgement across eight areas in two days, we may find fewer school and college leaders wanting to carry on as Ofsted inspectors, which in turn will limit Ofsted’s ability to routinely inspect schools.”
Also reflecting on this concern is Matt Newman, national officer for the First Division Association (FDA) union which represents inspectors, including those working in schools and trusts. He takes a diplomatic tone while warning Ofsted to ensure it understands how the proposals could impact workload.
“FDA members have been clear that any new model must be practically workable whilst continuing to put high educational standards and the wellbeing of children at its core,” he said.
“We will continue to challenge Ofsted and the government to ensure these reforms deliver this.”
Questions for consultation
Ofsted has acknowledged this in its documentation, by saying it will assess the “impact of our proposed reforms on leaders’, practitioners’ and inspectors’ workloads, mental health and well-being”, including by conducting “visits to providers and external review”.
Tes has asked what that work will include - and what “visits to providers and external review” means - but Ofsted did not provide any additional information. Meanwhile, the consultation itself does include a direct question on this issue. It asks: “What do you consider are the likely workload and well-being implications of these proposals?”
No doubt Ofsted will receive plenty of feedback. After all, even the most high-functioning inspector may wince at the suggestion that if an “emerging grade” during an inspection is “at odds with leaders’ views” (which you suspect most would be) the solution is to do more research.
“Inspectors will ask leaders to suggest who else they should speak to and what other evidence they could consider to make sure they have gathered a broad enough range of evidence, within the time available,” it states.
Then, having done this, inspectors can simply “clearly state the evidence that has led to their provisional conclusions” and “reflect that evidence in the report card”.
Training ‘to mitigate impact’
It’s a logical course of action but it clearly will increase workload - and the likelihood of strained conversations between inspectors and schools.
“Currently, even with fewer categories, inspections require detailed discussions and multiple sources of evidence to ensure fairness and accuracy,” notes one inspector.
“With nine-11 categories, this could become overwhelming, particularly within the same inspection timeframes.”
Ofsted has promised inspectors will receive plenty of training before the new system is rolled out that could mitigate this impact - but another inspector says past experience suggests this may not be enough.
“If we were worried about the ability and capability of Ofsted staff to deliver the last handbook after years of training, we should be really worried about this one.”
Pre-populated texts
Meanwhile, another serving inspector says one way around this concern could be for inspectors to be given a selection of pre-written texts for each category, saying that feels like, “the only real functional way to be able to pass summative judgements across such a wide range of areas”.
That approach may also bring consistency to how different selections are justified by creating a common language across inspections.
But they worry this may make the process less purposeful, too: “[It would] take away from the richness of the process and again just focus more on grading, rather than a developmental experience for schools.”
All told it is clear inspectors are, just like many school and union leaders, not convinced by the system proposed.
“While the intention behind the reform may be to provide a more nuanced and comprehensive picture of a school’s performance, the practical implications for inspectors - especially serving practitioners - are considerable.”
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